Divergent Trends: Projecting the Prevalence of Liver Cancer in Af-ghanistan and Globally, 2021–2040

Abstract

Background: Liver cancer is an important global health problem with a pronounced epidemiological pattern between nations. Understanding the future epidemiological picture through a robust forecasting model is essential for effective public health planning. We aimed to estimate the future prevalence of liver cancer in Afghanistan by 2040 using the Illness Death Model (IDM).

Methods: This study utilized the IDM and calibrated it based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2021 to estimate age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) for liver cancer in Afghanistan and worldwide from 2021 to 2040. Our analysis included sex-disaggregated data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the disease’s impact.

Results: Projections reveal divergent trajectories: global ASPR is expected to decline by 25.0%, while Afghanistan may experience a 17.0% increase. Sex-specific analysis shows Afghan women facing the most substantial burden with a projected 21.3% increase in ASPR, compared to a 12.6% increase among Afghan men. These trends contrast sharply with global patterns where both sexes show declining prevalence.

Conclusion: The divergent epidemiological trajectories of liver cancer prevalence between Afghanistan and global can underscore the importance of context-specific public health strategies in resource-limited settings. So that, enhanced vaccination programs, improved food safety regulations, and strengthened healthcare infrastructure are critical for addressing Afghanistan's growing liver cancer burden.